Curvilinear Wave Analysis of economic data...
Retail Sales - October 2019
ECONODAY: The headline edged above expectations but the details of the October retail sales report aren't pointing to much momentum going into the holiday shopping season. Total sales did rise 0.3 percent in the month but ex-auto sales, which were thought to prove stronger, proved a little less solid than the headline at a 0.2 percent gain. Control group sales, which are GDP inputs, posted a solid 0.3 percent gain which, however, was a tenth below Econoday's consensus. First the positives which are led by motor vehicles where sales, despite weakness in unit auto sales posted earlier in the month, rose 0.5 percent in October. Sales at gasoline stations, which are typically skewed by monthly price swings, jumped 1.1 percent. When excluding both autos and gas, retail sales managed only a 0.1 percent rise to fall below Econoday's consensus range. Sales at clothing stores, reflecting weak prices, fell 1.0 percent with sales at furniture stores nearly as weak with a 0.9 percent drop. Sporting goods sales fell 0.8 percent in the month with electronics & appliances down 0.4 percent. A telling confirmation of weakness is a 0.3 percent reduction in restaurant sales, one that doesn't speak to much consumer enthusiasm...
Construction Spending Growth - September 2019
ECONODAY: Construction spending improved for a third straight month in September, up 0.5 percent and near the top end of Econoday's consensus range though year-on-year change, at minus 2.0 percent, remains in the negative column and offers a reminder of prior declines. But the news for September is positive led by a 1.3 percent monthly rise in single-family construction, a key area that helps boost residential investment in the GDP account and which will provide new supply and new choices for buyers in the new home market...
Economic Confidence Ready To Drop
GALLUP: Americans' confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August's +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January. At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession...
Total Credit Market Debt Growth Ready To Crash Again
The financial metric that rules the world is called Total Credit Market Debt, or as it's now referred to, All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level...
Reckless Consumer Borrowing Keeps Recovery Illusion Afloat
ECONODAY: Consumer credit came in sharply above expectations, up $23.3 billion in July as consumers ran up their credit-card debt after paying down some of it in the previous month. Revolving credit, reflecting credit card debt, rose $10.0 billion after falling an upward revised $0.2 billion previously, while non-revolving credit, where student loans and vehicle financing are tracked, rose $13.3 billion versus June's $14.7 billion...
One Day This Expansion Is Gonna End
ECONODAY: Consumer spending was stronger than previously estimated in the second quarter, rising at an annual 4.7 percent inflation-adjusted pace. This pace is a reminder that the strong labor market is underpinning the consumer and helping to offset weakness in global growth and the resulting weakness in domestic manufacturing. Overall GDP was shaved by 1 tenth in the second estimate for the second quarter though still managed a respectable 2.0 percent showing..
Housing Starts Ready To Turn Lower
ECONODAY: A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts and a much higher-than-expected rate for permits. Starts, at a total 1.191 million annual rate, were dragged lower by a sharp fall for multi-family homes to a 315,000 annual rate and 2.8 percent contraction from July last year. Yet starts for single-family homes, which are key for the residential component of GDP, actually rose to a 876,000 rate for a 1.9 percent year-on-year gain...