Oakmont Bakery Burns Itself Badly


If it ain't broke, don't fix it...

Revolving Credit Growth - February 2019


ECONODAY: Growth in consumer credit remains steady, up $16.6 billion in December following an upward revised $22.4 billion in November. Nonrevolving credit, where student loans and vehicle financing are tracked, rose $14.8 billion against a $17.6 billion increase in the prior month. But revolving credit, here tracking credit card debt, rose only $1.7 billion vs November's $4.8 billion. Given the absence of December retail sales data, which have been delayed due to the government shutdown, the slowing in revolving credit may hint at less aggressive purchases during the final month of holiday shopping....


Bank Credit Update - January 2019


Curvilinear Wave Analysis of economic data...

Global Cooling Update


Grand solar minimum...

Empire State Manufacturing - January 2019


ECONODAY: Slowing into the New Year is the theme from the Empire State index, coming in at 3.9 to indicate the lowest rate of growth since May 2017. Any readings over zero indicate monthly growth and at 3.5 new orders are not showing much strength while backlog orders are in contraction at minus 7.6. But shipments continue to move out the door at a strong 17.9 and the report's sample continues to hire with employment at 7.4. And, despite the slowing in orders, price pressures persist with input costs at an elevated 35.9 and selling prices steady at 13.1. The nation's manufacturing sector is suddenly having a bumpy time and the reasons aren't clear. Watch Thursday for the Philly Fed report and the next indication on January's factory conditions....

Construction Spending Growth - October 2018


ECONODAY: Construction has been a soft spot of the economy evident once again in October where spending fell 0.1 percent for the third straight decline and the fourth decline in five months. Spending on new single-family homes in October fell 0.5 percent with home-improvement spending down 0.9 percent, both offsetting a strong 1.0 percent rise in multi-family homes. Private nonresidential construction fell 0.3 percent in October with declines in power, manufacturing, transportation and commercial components offsetting another strong gain for office building...

Revolving Credit Growth - September 2018


ECONODAY: Consumer credit growth slowed more than expected to just $10.9 billion in September, below Econoday's consensus range and less than half of the upwardly revised $22.9 billion August increase. Growth slowed in nonrevolving credit, which rose $11.2 billion in September versus $18.3 billion previously, while growth in revolving credit stalled completely and posted a marginal decline of $0.3 billion. Gains in nonrevolving credit reflect vehicle financing and student loans while gains in revolving credit reflect credit-card debt. Today's report shows that despite strong employment, consumers were cautious in September after splurging a little in August and chose to pay down some of their credit card debt instead. While it may be a plus for household wealth, the thriftiness exhibited is not a plus for consumer spending and the GDP...