GALLUP: Americans' confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August's +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January. At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession...
The financial metric that rules the world is called Total Credit Market Debt, or as it's now referred to, All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level...
ECONODAY: Consumer credit came in sharply above expectations, up $23.3 billion in July as consumers ran up their credit-card debt after paying down some of it in the previous month. Revolving credit, reflecting credit card debt, rose $10.0 billion after falling an upward revised $0.2 billion previously, while non-revolving credit, where student loans and vehicle financing are tracked, rose $13.3 billion versus June's $14.7 billion...
ECONODAY: Consumer spending was stronger than previously estimated in the second quarter, rising at an annual 4.7 percent inflation-adjusted pace. This pace is a reminder that the strong labor market is underpinning the consumer and helping to offset weakness in global growth and the resulting weakness in domestic manufacturing. Overall GDP was shaved by 1 tenth in the second estimate for the second quarter though still managed a respectable 2.0 percent showing..
Curvilinear Wave Analysis of economic data...
ECONODAY: A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts and a much higher-than-expected rate for permits. Starts, at a total 1.191 million annual rate, were dragged lower by a sharp fall for multi-family homes to a 315,000 annual rate and 2.8 percent contraction from July last year. Yet starts for single-family homes, which are key for the residential component of GDP, actually rose to a 876,000 rate for a 1.9 percent year-on-year gain...
Curvilinear Wave Analysis of economic data...
ECONODAY: May was an unexpectedly weak month for the US construction sector and will be pulling back early second-quarter GDP estimates. Construction spending fell 0.8 percent in May and below Econoday's consensus range. Residential spending continues to be the weakest element of the report but May's data include declines for non-residential spending as well, both public and private. Residential spending fell 0.6 percent in May and now shows declines each month this year. Compared to May last year, residential spending is down a very steep 11.2 percent. The greatest area of weakness also offers a reading on consumer discretionary spending as home improvements, in their own long string of declines, are down a year-on-year 22.0 percent. Single-family homes, the dominant category on the residential side, fell in May and are down 7.6 percent on the year. The one residential plus is new multi-family homes which, reflecting demand tied to high costs for single-family homes, are up 9.3 percent...
The headline number remains positive but the growth rate has turned decidedly negative...
