Curvilinear Wave Analysis of economic data...
Housing Starts Ready To Turn Lower
ECONODAY: A slow turn upward is the indication from a mixed but still positive housing starts and permits report for July, headlined by a much lower-than-expected rate for starts and a much higher-than-expected rate for permits. Starts, at a total 1.191 million annual rate, were dragged lower by a sharp fall for multi-family homes to a 315,000 annual rate and 2.8 percent contraction from July last year. Yet starts for single-family homes, which are key for the residential component of GDP, actually rose to a 876,000 rate for a 1.9 percent year-on-year gain...
Construction Spending Growth - May 2019
ECONODAY: May was an unexpectedly weak month for the US construction sector and will be pulling back early second-quarter GDP estimates. Construction spending fell 0.8 percent in May and below Econoday's consensus range. Residential spending continues to be the weakest element of the report but May's data include declines for non-residential spending as well, both public and private. Residential spending fell 0.6 percent in May and now shows declines each month this year. Compared to May last year, residential spending is down a very steep 11.2 percent. The greatest area of weakness also offers a reading on consumer discretionary spending as home improvements, in their own long string of declines, are down a year-on-year 22.0 percent. Single-family homes, the dominant category on the residential side, fell in May and are down 7.6 percent on the year. The one residential plus is new multi-family homes which, reflecting demand tied to high costs for single-family homes, are up 9.3 percent...
Unemployment Set To Explode Higher
The headline number remains positive but the growth rate has turned decidedly negative...
Commercial Loan Growth Kills Stock Market Rally
FRED's Commercial and Industrial Loan data are pointing to a recession and a bear market...
Household Net Worth Growth - Q4 2018
CNBC: Americans' net worth fell at the highest level since the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2018 as sliding stock market prices ate into the household balance sheet. Net worth dropped to $104.3 trillion as the year came to an end, a decrease of $3.73 trillion, according to figures released Thursday by the Federal Reserve. The fall amounted to a drop of 3.4 percent...
The Most Depressing Chart In The U.S. - January 2019
ECONODAY: The late-month end of the government shutdown, or at least temporary end, had only limited impact on the consumer sentiment index which ended January at 91.2, up 5 tenths from mid-month but down a very steep 7.1 points from December....